Assessment of climate variability impacts on the Brazilian Large Marine Ecosystems using statistical analysis and regional ocean modeling

Helena Cachanhuk Soares, Douglas Francisco Marcolino Gherardi, Luciano Ponzi Pezzi
Remote Sensing Department (DSR), National Institute for Space Research (INPE)

This study aims to evaluate the response of interannual climate variations on Brazilian Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs). The LMEs are established for assessment and management of marine resources and have been defined for different hydrographic regimes, bathymetry, productivity, and trophic population levels. Correlation analysis between climate indices and oceanic and atmospheric variables in the South Atlantic Ocean resulted in strong influences of Niño, Tropical Atlantic Variability, Antarctic Oscillation mode, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation over the LME regions. ROMS will be used to investigate the physical processes involved in these correlation patterns.

Several year long experiments have been designed to investigate the extreme conditions associated with each climate index. The impacts of climate variability on the LME productivity is investigated using the Fennel biogeochemical model in ROMS. A preliminary run for the period of 1980-2008 was carried out using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) for atmospheric forcing and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) for lateral boundary conditions for a 1/4º grid of the South Atlantic basin. Results are presented comparing remote sensing data to evaluate the model solution.