Use of Operational Forecast Systems in Oil Spill Trajectory Modeling

Amy MacFadyen and Glen Watabayashi

NOAA OR&R Emergency Response Division, Seattle, WA 98115

Thousands of incidents occur each year in which oil or chemicals are released into the environment as a result of accidents or natural disasters. Spills into our coastal waters can harm people and the environment and cause substantial disruption of marine transportation with potential widespread economic impacts. The Emergency Response Division (ERD) of NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration (OR&R) provides scientific expertise to support an incident response – a key part of which is trajectory forecasting to predict the movement of oil spills.

The movement of oil (and other substances) on the water surface is driven by a combination of winds and ocean currents. Forecasting this movement requires environmental data that has traditionally been either sparse or unavailable. However, more recently, operational nowcast and forecast hydrodynamic model systems are increasingly being implemented in critical inland and coastal waters of the United States. In order for these systems to be incorporated in incident response, the forecast datasets must be readily available in a form that can be utilized immediately so that model predictions may be quickly evaluated. We highlight several such regional systems that have recently been utilized in spill response.