Downscaling Future Climate Scenarios for the North Sea

Bjørn Ådlandsvik, Institute of Marine Research, Bergen


Global, coupled, ocean-atmosphere climate models are too coarse and do not yet faithfully represent the regional details of coastal circulations. This is the case in the North Sea, the global system does not resolve well the shelf circulation for ecological studies. To obtain more realistic oceanic circulations, ROMS has been used in a dynamic downscaling approach. The global Bergen Climate Model (BCM) system is used to provide both atmospheric forcing and oceanic boundary conditions to a finer resolution model of the North Sea.

A couple of BCM simulations have been downscaled corresponding to present (IPCC 20C3M run) and future (A1B run, 21th Century) climate scenarios. The downscaling improves the circulation in the North Sea by providing more realistic Atlantic inflow, improved winter temperatures, and more regional features like the Norwegian Coastal Current.